Cycle of Insurgency: Will the cycle change under Trump

(TFC) – Does a change in leadership alter the course of the cycle of insurgency within the United States? Some are hopeful. They’re going to be disappointed.

The cycle of insurgency is a set pattern that responds to various influences from government. Most of these influences are beyond the immediate control of a single leader. However, the political climate that ushered in a new leader can help predict influences.

Trump rose to power by appealing to a demographic that endorses violence to stifle political dissent. Other politicians will see this and act accordingly to ride the coattails of their new leader. The United States is currently in the fourth stage of the cycle of insurgency, military or law enforcement backlash.


Prior to the digital age, pamphlets were the main method of spreading dissent around the world. The pamphlets examined and questioned the authority of the contemporary governments and control systems. In the modern world, pamphlets have been replaced by blogs, social media, and to a smaller degree, adversarial journalists.

Reactive Protests:

Once the seed of dissent is planted, people take to the streets to voice their opposition to the government. These protests occur after the control systems of the era attempt to defuse an offending incident.

Preemptive Rioting:

Preemptive rioting follows a period of reactive protests that go unanswered by the government. The people begin taking to the streets and destroying private and public property as soon as an offending incident takes place, rather than waiting and hoping for the government to police itself.

Military or Law Enforcement backlash and crackdowns:

These riots and small incidents of resistance trigger a government reaction. The control systems of the country tighten their grip on the people and further curtail civil liberties and infringe on people’s rights. The government crackdown fuels the resistance movement as more people tire of government intrusion.

Widespread rebellion and insurrection:
At some point during the crackdown, an incident occurs that tosses a match into the powder keg of dissent. At this point, open rebellion occurs.


So what is being done to tighten the control systems? In the last few weeks, discussion have taken place or legislation has been introduced to:

Legalize the “accidental” murder of those protesting in streets
Lengthen jail time for protesters in the streets
Reclassify civil disobedience as a form of terrorism
Increase jail time for picketing
Require government officials to kill protesters who are unwilling to comply with an order to disperse

Obviously, these developments will raise tensions between those doing the government’s bidding and those seeking to reform the government. It sets the stage for a Boston Massacre style event. There is no change. The match is still falling into the powder keg in Trump’s ‘Merica.