Mosul, Iraq (TFC) – The US government destroyed its allies’ chance for success in an upcoming offensive to retake the conquered city of Mosul when it announced the time frame and number of troops to be used in the attack.
An offensive is reportedly scheduled to start in April or May and will involve 20,000 to 25,000 Iraqi and Kurdish forces. Traditional military thinking states that a successful military operation requires three things: Surprise, speed, and violence of action. The element of surprise has been lost. “Speed” can be a relative term, but a two-month build up is not speedy by any definition. The violence of action can still be achieved by deploying US aircraft to bomb the city into submission at great cost to the civilian inhabitants that have already been victimized by the Islamic State. The resulting collateral damage will likely send the Islamic State forces fresh recruits seeking to get even for the deaths of family members.
Additionally, strategic planners tend to believe that it requires three attackers for every defender in order to take an enemy position. Current estimates place Islamic State strength below 5,000 in Mosul. However, IS commanders now have 60 days to beef up the number of fighters in the city.
This incident adds further fuel to the belief that the current administration has no interest in actually winning the conflict, but rather is only interested in prolonging it for political gain and to give defense contractor campaign contributors a healthy bottom line.
Whether deliberate or accidental, loose lips have sunk this ship.